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About

Real bookmaker odds · 2024–2026 · All sports

Data-driven picks backed
by real, verified ROI.

Every pick is scored against live bookmaker odds. No cherry-picked results — all figures are real bets, real prices, tested out-of-sample across every sport we cover.

776

Active predictions

58%

High-confidence accuracy

Live sports

2hr

Update interval

ROI by Sport — Flat Stake Yield

Real bookmaker odds · 2024–2026 · updates each workflow run

Yield = profit ÷ total staked · grey = signal not active for this sport

Best Bets

Value Bets

🏇 Racing signal

2026 YTD — $500 bankroll, ¼ Kelly staking

Every pick tracked · updates each run

Best Bets · 206 picks

$1,650

+230%

Value Bets · 89 picks

$1,345

+169%

Racing · 133 bets

$1,763

+253%

Best Bets

Value Bets

🏇 Racing

⚠️ Simulation only. Assumes ¼ Kelly staking (stake fraction = edge / 4), profits reinvested. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.

High-confidence picks

Top model picks across all live sports. Updated automatically.

🥊 UFC · Oct 31

86.2% — high

Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová

Pick: Lucia Szabová $1.17

86.2% model confidence

🥊 UFC · Oct 30

83.6% — high

Ansar Khamzaev vs Juliano Prescendo

Pick: Ansar Khamzaev $1.13

83.6% model confidence

🏒 NHL · Oct 31

83.2% — high

Boston Bruins vs Chicago Blackhawks

Pick: Boston Bruins ~$1.20

83.2% model confidence

⚽ Football · Nov 29

82.0% — high

Real Madrid vs Alavés

Pick: Real Madrid $1.95

82.0% model confidence

⚽ Football · Oct 31

81.8% — high

Barcelona vs Alavés

Pick: Barcelona $1.12

81.8% model confidence

🏀 NBA · Oct 30

76.5% — high

Boston Celtics vs Chicago Bulls

Pick: Boston Celtics $1.17

76.5% model confidence

🏀 NBA · Oct 30

76.5% — high

Brooklyn Nets vs Detroit Pistons

Pick: Detroit Pistons $1.32

76.5% model confidence

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

74.9% — high

Montreal Canadiens vs Winnipeg Jets

Pick: Montreal Canadiens $1.87

74.9% model confidence

How it works

Six data signals. One confidence score. Everything tracked.

📊

Elo ratings

Every team has a live strength score, updated after each game weighted by margin of victory. Teams that beat stronger opponents gain more. Updated every 2 hours.

📈

Rolling form

Recent results carry more weight than old ones. The model looks at 5, 10 and 20-game windows to capture current momentum — a team on a 5-game run matters more than a cold favourite.

🏠

Matchup context

Home advantage is built into every rating, and fatigue where we have it — back-to-backs in NBA and NHL, days between games in AFL. Ratings are per team, not league averages.

🎯

Confidence score

Every pick comes with a model confidence percentage. Best Bets are picks where the model has historically been most accurate. Value Bets are where the odds offer more than the risk warrants.

📋

Full transparency

Every pick published by Vantage is logged and graded publicly on the Results page — wins and losses, no cherry-picking. The model accuracy you see is real.

🔄

Always current

Models retrain every 2 hours from the latest results. New games added automatically. Odds pulled from live bookmaker feeds and updated each cycle.

2026 Season — High-confidence picks

71%

AFL accuracy

147 from 206

62%

NRL accuracy

128 from 206

51%

MLB accuracy

424 from 824

63%

NFL accuracy

84 from 134

All picks logged publicly on the Results page — wins and losses, no cherry-picking.

What's free · what's paid

Every sport page and every result — free

Individual sport picks, the full results archive and past performance are free and always will be — no account needed.

Best Bets, Value Bets, Racing and My Strategy are subscriber-only: the edge-filtered selections the model rates highest, plus your own staking calculator and P&L dashboard.

🌍 FIFA World Cup 2026

USA · Canada · Mexico · June 11 – July 19 · 32 predictions

Picks

💰 Value

Data

💰 Outsiders the model backs — implied odds $3.00+. Higher risk, higher reward.

💰

No value picks this week — check back after the next update.

World Cup model — squad strength scores

Tier

Range

Examples

Teams

Elite

0.85–0.92

Spain, France, Brazil

Strong

0.75–0.84

Germany, Netherlands, Portugal

Mid

0.60–0.74

USA, Mexico, Australia

Lower

0.34–0.59

New Zealand, Curaçao

Model features

📊 Elo ratings (international, live)

👕 Squad strength (all 48 teams)

🏠 Neutral venue adjustment

📈 Rolling international form

🔁 Head-to-head international record

🎯 Two-model draw detection

Live updates

The model retains after every completed game. As teams play, their Elo ratings and form windows update, and predictions for remaining group stage games shift accordingly. Updated every 2 hours during the tournament.

🏉 NRL 2026

National Rugby League · 0 upcoming game predictions · Updated every 2 hours

Best Bet

56%

+43% ROI

$500→$637

Picks

Data

NRL 2026 season — final record

EVERY GAME PREDICTED

63.1%

128 correct from 203 games

Best Bets

5/9 (56%)

ROI +32.6% from 9 bets

Best of the season

Parramatta Eels @ $2.60 · North Queensland Cowboys @ Parramatta Eels · 2026-08-15

Model features

📊 Elo ratings (NRL-specific, K=28)

📈 Rolling form — 5/10/20 games

🏠 Home/away splits per team

⚡ Points differential (attack/defence)

🔁 Head-to-head record (last 10)

😴 Rest days since last game

🏃 Team run metres (last 3 rounds)

🛡️ Missed tackle rate (last 3 rounds)

⚠️ Errors per game (last 3 rounds)

NRL model notes

No draws in NRL — golden point decides tied games. Pure binary classification. Trained on NRL results (2014–2026). Player form data (595 players, 11,772 match records) feeds a secondary adjustment layer that shifts predictions up to ±8% based on recent team attacking and defensive metrics. Model retrains after every completed round.

⚽ Football

EPL · La Liga · Bundesliga · Serie A · Ligue 1 · UCL · UEL — 100 upcoming predictions

Picks

💰 Value

Data

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Oct 30

SV Elversberg vs Mainz

Pick: SV Elversberg~$1.29

78%

SV Elversberg carry a 152-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 78% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Oct 30

Villarreal vs Espanyol

Pick: Villarreal$1.57

73%

Villarreal carry a 98-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 73% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Oct 30

Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain

Pick: Paris Saint-Germain~$1.36

74%

Paris Saint-Germain carry a 286-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 74% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Oct 31

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Pick: Bayern Munich$1.35

66%

Bayern Munich carry a 72-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 66% — with the draw at 18% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Oct 31

Aston Villa vs Fulham

Pick: Aston Villa$2.00

67%

Aston Villa carry a 118-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 67% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Oct 31

Coventry City vs Sunderland

Pick: Coventry City$2.70

73%

Coventry City carry a 95-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 73% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Oct 31

Hull City vs Ipswich Town

Pick: Hull City$2.60

66%

Hull City carry a 100-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 66% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Oct 31

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Pick: Manchester City$1.55

66%

Manchester City carry a 108-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 66% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Oct 31

Barcelona vs Alavés

Pick: Barcelona$1.12

82%

Barcelona carry a 287-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 82% — with the draw at 13% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 1

Lyon vs Angers

Pick: Lyon$1.40

75%

Lyon carry a 149-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 75% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 1

Como vs Venezia

Pick: Como$1.30

69%

Como carry a 136-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 69% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 1

Frosinone vs Torino

Pick: Frosinone$2.25

61%

Frosinone carry a 99-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 61% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 1

Lazio vs Cagliari

Pick: Lazio$1.57

70%

Lazio carry a 106-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 70% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Nov 2

Deportivo vs Osasuna

Pick: Deportivo~$1.27

79%

Deportivo carry a 163-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 79% — with the draw at 14% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 2

Atalanta vs Parma

Pick: Atalanta$1.40

65%

Atalanta carry a 87-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 65% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

⭐ UCL · Nov 3

Barcelona vs Aston Villa

Pick: Barcelona$1.25

76%

Barcelona carry a 98-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 76% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

⭐ UCL · Nov 3

Bodo/Glimt vs Lille

Pick: Bodo/Glimt~$1.42

70%

Bodo/Glimt carry a 89-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 70% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

⭐ UCL · Nov 3

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart

Pick: Galatasaray$2.15

63%

The model makes Galatasaray 63% from attack and defence ratings, with the draw at 19%.

⭐ UCL · Nov 3

LASK Linz vs Slovan Bratislava

Pick: LASK Linz$1.62

61%

The model makes LASK Linz 61% from attack and defence ratings, with the draw at 20%.

⭐ UCL · Nov 4

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis

Pick: Borussia Dortmund$1.78

71%

Borussia Dortmund carry a 71-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 71% — with the draw at 18% in this three-way market.

🟠 UEL · Nov 5

Anderlecht vs RB Salzburg

Pick: Anderlecht$1.90

60%

Anderlecht carry a 54-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 60% — with the draw at 19% in this three-way market.

🟠 UEL · Nov 5

Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen

Pick: Lillestrom$2.75

66%

Lillestrom carry a 58-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 66% — with the draw at 19% in this three-way market.

🟠 UEL · Nov 5

Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth

Pick: Sparta Prague$5.50

70%

Sparta Prague carry a 117-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 70% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Nov 7

Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg

Pick: Borussia Dortmund$1.36

61%

The model makes Borussia Dortmund 61% from attack and defence ratings, with the draw at 23%.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Nov 7

Mainz vs Bayern Munich

Pick: Bayern Munich~$1.65

60%

Bayern Munich carry a 206-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 60% — with the draw at 20% in this three-way market.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Nov 7

RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg

Pick: RB Leipzig$1.44

70%

RB Leipzig carry a 93-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 70% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Nov 7

SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Pick: SC Paderborn 07$3.00

67%

SC Paderborn 07 carry a 132-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 67% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Nov 7

Arsenal vs Hull City

Pick: Arsenal$1.22

75%

Arsenal carry a 81-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 75% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Nov 7

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Pick: Manchester City$1.62

58%

Manchester City carry a 169-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 58% — with the draw at 22% in this three-way market.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Nov 7

Espanyol vs Deportivo

Pick: Deportivo~$1.65

61%

Deportivo carry a 173-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 61% — with the draw at 22% in this three-way market.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Nov 7

Valencia vs Real Madrid

Pick: Real Madrid$1.33

64%

Real Madrid carry a 263-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 64% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 7

Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes

Pick: Paris Saint-Germain~$1.31

77%

Paris Saint-Germain carry a 182-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 77% — with the draw at 14% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 7

AS Roma vs Sassuolo

Pick: AS Roma~$1.42

70%

AS Roma carry a 128-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 70% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Nov 8

Villarreal vs Getafe

Pick: Villarreal$1.60

60%

Villarreal carry a 67-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 60% — with the draw at 18% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 8

Le Mans vs AS Monaco

Pick: Le Mans$4.50

58%

Le Mans carry a 64-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 58% — with the draw at 18% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 8

Stade Rennais vs Lille

Pick: Stade Rennais~$1.72

58%

The model makes Stade Rennais 58% from attack and defence ratings, with the draw at 20%.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 8

Internazionale vs Como

Pick: Internazionale~$1.34

74%

Internazionale carry a 68-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 74% — with the draw at 18% in this three-way market.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Nov 20

Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne

Pick: Bayern Munich~$1.24

81%

Bayern Munich carry a 265-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 81% — with the draw at 12% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 20

Troyes vs Le Havre AC

Pick: Troyes~$1.50

67%

Troyes carry a 105-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 67% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Nov 21

SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg

Pick: SV Elversberg$2.75

71%

SV Elversberg carry a 90-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 71% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Nov 21

Coventry City vs Crystal Palace

Pick: Coventry City$1.66

78%

Coventry City carry a 160-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 78% — with the draw at 14% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Nov 21

Manchester City vs Fulham

Pick: Manchester City$1.90

79%

Manchester City carry a 153-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 79% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Nov 21

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo

Pick: Real Madrid$2.08

81%

Real Madrid carry a 228-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 81% — with the draw at 14% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 21

AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre

Pick: AS Monaco~$1.49

67%

AS Monaco carry a 74-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 67% — with the draw at 18% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 21

Lens vs Toulouse

Pick: Lens~$1.48

68%

Lens carry a 109-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 68% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 21

Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain

Pick: Paris Saint-Germain$2.12

60%

Paris Saint-Germain carry a 238-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 60% — with the draw at 18% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 21

Como vs Cagliari

Pick: Como~$1.54

65%

Como carry a 129-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 65% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 21

Lazio vs Lecce

Pick: Lazio~$1.57

64%

Lazio carry a 130-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 64% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 21

Napoli vs Torino

Pick: Napoli~$1.62

62%

Napoli carry a 91-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 62% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Nov 22

Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Pick: Hull City$4.35

62%

Hull City carry a 65-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 62% — with the draw at 18% in this three-way market.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Nov 22

Barcelona vs Villarreal

Pick: Barcelona~$1.29

78%

Barcelona carry a 197-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 78% — with the draw at 14% in this three-way market.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Nov 22

Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad

Pick: Racing Santander~$1.35

74%

Racing Santander carry a 115-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 74% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 22

Paris FC vs Angers

Pick: Paris FC~$1.45

69%

Paris FC carry a 124-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 69% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 22

Juventus vs Venezia

Pick: Juventus~$1.70

59%

Juventus carry a 89-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 59% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

⭐ UCL · Nov 24

Manchester City vs Napoli

Pick: Manchester City~$1.28

78%

Manchester City carry a 104-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 78% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

⭐ UCL · Nov 24

RB Leipzig vs Lens

Pick: RB Leipzig~$1.59

63%

The model makes RB Leipzig 63% from attack and defence ratings, with the draw at 22%.

⭐ UCL · Nov 24

Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven

Pick: Real Madrid~$1.32

76%

Real Madrid carry a 92-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 76% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

⭐ UCL · Nov 24

Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis

Pick: Slovan Bratislava~$1.69

59%

The model makes Slovan Bratislava 59% from attack and defence ratings, with the draw at 19%.

⭐ UCL · Nov 25

Internazionale vs VfB Stuttgart

Pick: Internazionale~$1.38

72%

Internazionale carry a 98-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 72% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

⭐ UCL · Nov 25

Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Roma

Pick: Paris Saint-Germain$2.30

70%

Paris Saint-Germain carry a 97-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 70% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🟠 UEL · Nov 26

NEC Nijmegen vs Stade Rennais

Pick: NEC Nijmegen~$1.39

72%

NEC Nijmegen carry a 97-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 72% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🟠 UEL · Nov 26

Torreense vs Celtic

Pick: Torreense~$1.42

70%

Torreense carry a 86-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 70% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Nov 28

FC Cologne vs SV Elversberg

Pick: SV Elversberg~$1.69

59%

SV Elversberg carry a 211-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 59% — with the draw at 20% in this three-way market.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Nov 28

Hamburg SV vs Bayern Munich

Pick: Bayern Munich~$1.71

58%

Bayern Munich carry a 172-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 58% — with the draw at 22% in this three-way market.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Nov 28

SC Paderborn 07 vs Schalke 04

Pick: SC Paderborn 07~$1.65

61%

SC Paderborn 07 carry a 59-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 61% — with the draw at 19% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Nov 28

Manchester United vs Brentford

Pick: Manchester United$2.72

60%

The model makes Manchester United 60% from attack and defence ratings, with the draw at 20%.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 28

Angers vs Lens

Pick: Lens~$1.67

60%

Lens carry a 150-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 60% — with the draw at 23% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 28

Le Mans vs Lille

Pick: Le Mans$7.00

68%

Le Mans carry a 70-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 68% — with the draw at 18% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 28

Paris Saint-Germain vs Lorient

Pick: Paris Saint-Germain$2.35

71%

Paris Saint-Germain carry a 202-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 71% — with the draw at 13% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 28

Frosinone vs Parma

Pick: Frosinone~$1.41

71%

Frosinone carry a 145-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 71% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 28

Internazionale vs Genoa

Pick: Internazionale~$1.34

75%

Internazionale carry a 215-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 75% — with the draw at 13% in this three-way market.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Nov 29

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen

Pick: Borussia Dortmund~$1.69

59%

The model makes Borussia Dortmund 59% from attack and defence ratings, with the draw at 20%.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Nov 29

Málaga vs Athletic Club

Pick: Málaga~$1.68

60%

Málaga carry a 96-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 60% — with the draw at 17% in this three-way market.

🇪🇸 La Liga · Nov 29

Real Madrid vs Alavés

Pick: Real Madrid$1.95

82%

Real Madrid carry a 264-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 82% — with the draw at 12% in this three-way market.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Nov 29

Lyon vs AS Monaco

Pick: Lyon~$1.65

61%

The model makes Lyon 61% from attack and defence ratings, with the draw at 20%.

🇮🇹 Serie A · Nov 29

AS Roma vs Monza

Pick: AS Roma~$1.41

71%

AS Roma carry a 151-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 71% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Dec 1

Coventry City vs Ipswich Town

Pick: Coventry City$1.20

73%

Coventry City carry a 111-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 73% — with the draw at 16% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Dec 2

Aston Villa vs Everton

Pick: Aston Villa~$1.70

59%

Aston Villa carry a 149-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 59% — with the draw at 14% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Dec 2

Brentford vs Arsenal

Pick: Arsenal~$1.57

64%

Arsenal carry a 208-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 64% — with the draw at 20% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Dec 2

Hull City vs Nottingham Forest

Pick: Hull City$4.50

69%

Hull City carry a 126-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 69% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL · Dec 2

Manchester City vs Leeds United

Pick: Manchester City$2.10

80%

Manchester City carry a 176-point Elo edge, which the model turns into 80% — with the draw at 15% in this three-way market.

💰 Outsiders the model backs — implied odds $3.00+. Higher risk, higher reward.

Loading value bets…

Model features

📊 3-way Elo model (Home/Draw/Away)

📈 Rolling form — 5/10/20 games

🤝 Draw probability via Elo gap formula

🏠 Home advantage (per-league tuned)

📅 Season regression between campaigns

✅ Validated, 5 seasons

Notes

7 European leagues + cup competitions, 2016–present. Unique 3-way model: win/draw/loss probabilities. Draw probability increases as Elo gap narrows (formula: 0.28 × exp(−elo_diff/350)). K-factor and home advantage grid-searched per league. EPL starts Aug 2025, La Liga/Bundesliga similar. UCL group stage Sep–Dec, knockouts Feb–May.

🏀 NBA

National Basketball Association · Season starts October 2026 — 618 upcoming game predictions

Best Bet

56%

+19% ROI

$500→$611

Value Bet

53%

+17% ROI

$500→$572

Picks

💰 Value

Data

🏀 NBA · Oct 30

Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets

Pick: Charlotte Hornets$1.87

66%

Charlotte Hornets hold a 291-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 66% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Oct 30

Boston Celtics vs Chicago Bulls

Pick: Boston Celtics$1.17

76%

Boston Celtics are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 76% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Oct 30

Brooklyn Nets vs Detroit Pistons

Pick: Detroit Pistons$1.32

76%

Detroit Pistons are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 76% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Oct 30

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

Pick: Houston Rockets~$1.61

62%

Houston Rockets are winning 100% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 62% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Oct 30

Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers~$1.64

61%

Los Angeles Lakers are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 61% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Oct 31

Utah Jazz vs Portland Trail Blazers

Pick: Portland Trail Blazers~$1.35

74%

Portland Trail Blazers are winning 100% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 74% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Oct 31

Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers~$1.57

64%

Cleveland Cavaliers hold a 241-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 64% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 2

Indiana Pacers vs Atlanta Hawks

Pick: Atlanta Hawks~$1.64

61%

Atlanta Hawks hold a 222-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 61% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 2

New York Knicks vs Brooklyn Nets

Pick: New York Knicks~$1.36

74%

New York Knicks hold a 311-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 74% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 2

Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards

Pick: Orlando Magic~$1.53

65%

Orlando Magic hold a 217-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 65% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 2

Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers~$1.41

71%

Philadelphia 76ers are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 71% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 2

Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings

Pick: Dallas Mavericks~$1.58

63%

Dallas Mavericks hold a 151-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 63% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 2

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Milwaukee Bucks

Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves~$1.49

67%

Minnesota Timberwolves hold a 217-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 67% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 2

San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz

Pick: San Antonio Spurs$1.16

76%

San Antonio Spurs hold a 366-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 76% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 2

Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers~$1.55

64%

Los Angeles Lakers are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 64% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 4

Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks

Pick: Atlanta Hawks~$1.55

65%

Atlanta Hawks hold a 273-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 65% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 4

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks

Pick: Boston Celtics~$1.31

76%

Boston Celtics are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 76% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 4

Brooklyn Nets vs Charlotte Hornets

Pick: Charlotte Hornets$1.59

68%

Charlotte Hornets hold a 301-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 68% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 4

New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls

Pick: New York Knicks$1.41

69%

New York Knicks hold a 271-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 69% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 4

Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Pick: Houston Rockets~$1.66

60%

Houston Rockets are winning 100% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 60% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 4

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks

Pick: San Antonio Spurs$1.21

62%

San Antonio Spurs hold a 169-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 62% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 4

Sacramento Kings vs Los Angeles Lakers

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers$1.66

71%

Los Angeles Lakers are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 71% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 6

Atlanta Hawks vs Washington Wizards

Pick: Atlanta Hawks~$1.45

69%

Atlanta Hawks hold a 273-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 69% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 6

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz

Pick: Dallas Mavericks~$1.53

66%

Dallas Mavericks hold a 197-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 66% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 6

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder~$1.49

67%

Oklahoma City Thunder are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 67% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 6

Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors

Pick: Toronto Raptors~$1.59

63%

Toronto Raptors are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 63% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 6

Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs

Pick: San Antonio Spurs$1.06

69%

San Antonio Spurs hold a 320-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 69% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 7

Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets

Pick: Denver Nuggets~$1.53

65%

Denver Nuggets hold a 279-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 65% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 7

Atlanta Hawks vs Brooklyn Nets

Pick: Atlanta Hawks~$1.39

72%

Atlanta Hawks hold a 283-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 72% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 7

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder~$1.31

76%

Oklahoma City Thunder are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 76% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 7

Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets

Pick: Houston Rockets~$1.64

61%

Houston Rockets are winning 100% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 61% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 8

Chicago Bulls vs Philadelphia 76ers

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers~$1.53

66%

Philadelphia 76ers are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 66% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 8

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Utah Jazz

Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves~$1.37

73%

Minnesota Timberwolves hold a 293-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 73% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 8

Dallas Mavericks vs Brooklyn Nets

Pick: Dallas Mavericks~$1.54

65%

Dallas Mavericks hold a 176-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 65% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 8

Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics

Pick: Boston Celtics~$1.42

70%

Boston Celtics are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 70% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 9

Detroit Pistons vs Washington Wizards

Pick: Detroit Pistons~$1.31

76%

Detroit Pistons are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 76% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 9

Toronto Raptors vs Memphis Grizzlies

Pick: Toronto Raptors~$1.57

64%

Toronto Raptors are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 64% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 10

New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks

Pick: New York Knicks~$1.47

68%

New York Knicks hold a 256-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 68% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 10

Sacramento Kings vs Orlando Magic

Pick: Orlando Magic~$1.65

61%

Orlando Magic hold a 202-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 61% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 11

Chicago Bulls vs San Antonio Spurs

Pick: San Antonio Spurs~$1.48

68%

San Antonio Spurs hold a 305-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 68% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 11

Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets

Pick: Denver Nuggets~$1.60

63%

Denver Nuggets hold a 236-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 63% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 11

Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Lakers

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers~$1.48

68%

Los Angeles Lakers are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 68% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 11

Utah Jazz vs Orlando Magic

Pick: Orlando Magic~$1.59

63%

Orlando Magic hold a 248-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 63% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 11

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors

Pick: Houston Rockets~$1.43

70%

Houston Rockets are winning 100% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 70% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 12

Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons

Pick: Detroit Pistons~$1.32

76%

Detroit Pistons are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 76% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 13

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

Pick: New York Knicks$1.80

62%

New York Knicks hold a 250-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 62% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 13

Orlando Magic vs Milwaukee Bucks

Pick: Orlando Magic~$1.59

63%

Orlando Magic hold a 172-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 63% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 13

Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks

Pick: Atlanta Hawks~$1.58

63%

Atlanta Hawks hold a 243-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 63% probability of winning this game.

🏀 NBA · Nov 13

Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz

Pick: Houston Rockets~$1.31

76%

Houston Rockets are winning 100% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 76% model pick.

🏀 NBA · Nov 13

San Antonio Spurs vs Golden State Warriors

Pick: San Antonio Spurs$1.19

65%

San Antonio Spurs hold a 200-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 65% probability of winning this game.

💰 Outsiders the model backs — implied odds $3.00+. Higher risk, higher reward.

Loading value bets…

Model features

📊 Elo ratings (K=28, NBA-tuned)

📈 Rolling form — 5/10/20 games

🏠 Home advantage (+60 Elo pts)

⏱️ Back-to-back game penalty (significant in NBA)

🌐 Neutral site (Play-In, Finals)

✅ Validated, 10 seasons

Notes

NBA regular season + playoffs, 2016–present. Home advantage is large in NBA (+60 Elo pts). Back-to-back games carry a significant penalty — teams on a B2B are heavily disadvantaged. Season resets 30% to mean. Off-season now (August 2026) — picks populate from October 2026.

🏈 NFL

National Football League · 14 picks in the next 7 days

Best Bet

60%

+19% ROI

$500→$600

Value Bet

64%

+31% ROI

$500→$635

Picks

💰 Value

Data

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Buffalo Bills$1.74

66%

FormWWLWW

Buffalo Bills are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 66% model pick.

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals$1.36

70%

FormWLLWW

Cincinnati Bengals hold a 293-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 70% probability of winning this game.

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Dallas Cowboys$1.21

56%

FormLWLLW

Dallas Cowboys hold a 68-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 56% probability of winning this game.

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Minnesota Vikings$2.80

59%

FormWWWWW

Minnesota Vikings are winning 100% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 59% model pick.

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars$1.48

66%

FormLWWWL

Jacksonville Jaguars hold a 263-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 66% probability of winning this game.

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

New York Jets vs Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders$2.05

52%

FormWLLLL

Las Vegas Raiders hold a 56-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 52% probability of winning this game.

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers$1.40

57%

FormWLWWW

Pittsburgh Steelers are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 57% model pick.

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Atlanta Falcons$2.80

53%

FormWWLLW

Atlanta Falcons hold a 75-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 53% probability of winning this game.

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

Los Angeles Rams vs Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: Los Angeles Rams$1.51

64%

FormLWLLW

Los Angeles Rams hold a 209-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 64% probability of winning this game.

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Denver Broncos$1.87

59%

FormWLWWW

Denver Broncos are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 59% model pick.

🏈 NFL · Nov 1 · Week 8

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Pick: New England Patriots$1.31

66%

FormLWWWL

New England Patriots hold a 297-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 66% probability of winning this game.

🏈 NFL · Nov 2 · Week 8

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Washington Commanders$2.21

53%

FormLWLLL

The model gives Washington Commanders the nod at 53% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏈 NFL · Nov 3 · Week 8

Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears

Pick: Seattle Seahawks$1.46

54%

FormLWLLW

Seattle Seahawks hold a 53-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 54% probability of winning this game.

🏈 NFL · Nov 6 · Week 9

Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars$2.70

56%

FormLWWWL

Jacksonville Jaguars hold a 132-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 56% probability of winning this game.

💰 Outsiders the model backs — implied odds $3.00+. Higher risk, higher reward.

Loading value bets…

Model features

📊 Elo ratings (K=32, NFL-specific)

📈 Rolling form — 5/10/20 games

🏠 Home advantage (+25 Elo pts)

⏱️ Rest days between games

🌐 Neutral site flag (Super Bowl etc)

✅ Validated, 10 seasons

Notes

NFL regular season + playoffs, 2015–present. Neutral site games (Super Bowl, London games) adjust for no home advantage. 17-game regular season means form windows matter more than other leagues. K=32 chosen to give quicker adaptation to roster changes.

🏒 NHL

National Hockey League · 51 picks in the next 7 days

Best Bet

59%

+28% ROI

$500→$782

Value Bet

57%

+24% ROI

$500→$780

Picks

💰 Value

Data

🏒 NHL · Oct 30

San Jose Sharks vs Vancouver Canucks

Pick: San Jose Sharks$1.53

70%

FormLWWLL

San Jose Sharks hold a 57-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 70% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Oct 30

Anaheim Ducks vs Buffalo Sabres

Pick: Buffalo Sabres$1.77

52%

FormWLLLW

The model gives Buffalo Sabres the nod at 52% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Oct 30

Los Angeles Kings vs Ottawa Senators

Pick: Ottawa Senators$1.89

55%

FormLWLWL

The model gives Ottawa Senators the nod at 55% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Oct 30

Vegas Golden Knights vs New Jersey Devils

Pick: Vegas Golden Knights$1.91

56%

FormWLLLW

The model gives Vegas Golden Knights the nod at 56% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Oct 30

Florida Panthers vs Winnipeg Jets

Pick: Florida Panthers$1.46

74%

FormWLLWW

Florida Panthers hold a 64-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 74% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Oct 31

Calgary Flames vs Seattle Kraken

Pick: Calgary Flames$2.00

59%

FormWWWWL

Calgary Flames are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 59% model pick.

🏒 NHL · Oct 31

Boston Bruins vs Chicago Blackhawks

Pick: Boston Bruins~$1.20

83%

FormLWWLL

Boston Bruins hold a 117-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 83% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Oct 31

Detroit Red Wings vs St. Louis Blues

Pick: Detroit Red Wings~$1.65

61%

FormLWLWW

The model gives Detroit Red Wings the nod at 61% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Oct 31

Nashville Predators vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Pick: Nashville Predators~$1.93

52%

FormLLWLL

The model gives Nashville Predators the nod at 52% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Oct 31

New York Islanders vs Edmonton Oilers

Pick: New York Islanders~$1.65

61%

FormWLLWW

The model gives New York Islanders the nod at 61% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Oct 31

Los Angeles Kings vs Buffalo Sabres

Pick: Los Angeles Kings~$1.82

55%

FormWWLWL

The model gives Los Angeles Kings the nod at 55% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Oct 31

San Jose Sharks vs Ottawa Senators

Pick: San Jose Sharks~$1.46

68%

FormLWWLL

Elo and recent form both favour San Jose Sharks — 68% is one of the stronger picks in this slate.

🏒 NHL · Oct 31

Montreal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins

Pick: Montreal Canadiens~$1.86

54%

FormLWWWW

Montreal Canadiens are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 54% model pick.

🏒 NHL · Oct 31

Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs~$1.80

56%

FormWWWLL

Toronto Maple Leafs hold a 94-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 56% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Nov 1

Dallas Stars vs Columbus Blue Jackets

Pick: Dallas Stars~$1.65

61%

FormWWWLL

The model gives Dallas Stars the nod at 61% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 1

Colorado Avalanche vs Calgary Flames

Pick: Colorado Avalanche$1.44

53%

FormLLWLW

The model gives Colorado Avalanche the nod at 53% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 1

Carolina Hurricanes vs Winnipeg Jets

Pick: Carolina Hurricanes$1.65

73%

FormWLWWW

Carolina Hurricanes are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 73% model pick.

🏒 NHL · Nov 1

Washington Capitals vs Minnesota Wild

Pick: Minnesota Wild~$1.85

54%

FormLWWWL

The model gives Minnesota Wild the nod at 54% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 1

Philadelphia Flyers vs Utah Mammoth

Pick: Utah Mammoth~$1.99

50%

FormWLWLW

Utah Mammoth hold a 97-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 50% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Nov 1

New York Rangers vs Edmonton Oilers

Pick: New York Rangers~$1.90

52%

FormLWLLL

The model gives New York Rangers the nod at 52% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 2

Anaheim Ducks vs Ottawa Senators

Pick: Anaheim Ducks~$1.73

58%

FormLLLWL

The model gives Anaheim Ducks the nod at 58% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 3

Boston Bruins vs Vegas Golden Knights

Pick: Boston Bruins~$1.40

71%

FormLWWLL

Elo and recent form both favour Boston Bruins — 71% is one of the stronger picks in this slate.

🏒 NHL · Nov 3

Florida Panthers vs Detroit Red Wings

Pick: Florida Panthers~$1.49

67%

FormWLLWW

Elo and recent form both favour Florida Panthers — 67% is one of the stronger picks in this slate.

🏒 NHL · Nov 3

Chicago Blackhawks vs Colorado Avalanche

Pick: Colorado Avalanche~$1.73

58%

FormLLWLW

Colorado Avalanche hold a 91-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 58% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Nov 3

San Jose Sharks vs Calgary Flames

Pick: Calgary Flames~$1.89

53%

FormWWWWL

Calgary Flames are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 53% model pick.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Colorado Avalanche

Pick: Colorado Avalanche~$1.79

56%

FormLLWLW

The model gives Colorado Avalanche the nod at 56% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

Montreal Canadiens vs Winnipeg Jets

Pick: Montreal Canadiens$1.87

75%

FormLWWWW

Montreal Canadiens are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 75% model pick.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

New York Rangers vs St. Louis Blues

Pick: New York Rangers~$1.47

68%

FormLWLLL

Elo and recent form both favour New York Rangers — 68% is one of the stronger picks in this slate.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

Philadelphia Flyers vs Minnesota Wild

Pick: Minnesota Wild~$1.48

68%

FormLWWWL

Minnesota Wild hold a 120-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 68% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Vegas Golden Knights

Pick: Vegas Golden Knights$1.44

56%

FormWLLLW

Vegas Golden Knights hold a 63-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 56% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning~$1.57

64%

FormWWLLW

The model gives Tampa Bay Lightning the nod at 64% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Utah Mammoth

Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs$2.32

60%

FormWWWLL

The model gives Toronto Maple Leafs the nod at 60% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

Washington Capitals vs Dallas Stars

Pick: Washington Capitals~$1.76

57%

FormWLWWW

Washington Capitals are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 57% model pick.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

New Jersey Devils vs Edmonton Oilers

Pick: New Jersey Devils~$1.85

54%

FormWWWWL

New Jersey Devils are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 54% model pick.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

Nashville Predators vs Carolina Hurricanes

Pick: Carolina Hurricanes~$1.88

53%

FormWLWWW

Carolina Hurricanes are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 53% model pick.

🏒 NHL · Nov 4

Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks

Pick: Vancouver Canucks$2.64

56%

FormLLLLW

The model gives Vancouver Canucks the nod at 56% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 5

Buffalo Sabres vs Ottawa Senators

Pick: Buffalo Sabres~$1.44

70%

FormWLLLW

Elo and recent form both favour Buffalo Sabres — 70% is one of the stronger picks in this slate.

🏒 NHL · Nov 5

Florida Panthers vs Chicago Blackhawks

Pick: Florida Panthers$1.55

69%

FormWLLWW

Florida Panthers hold a 82-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 69% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Nov 5

Los Angeles Kings vs San Jose Sharks

Pick: Los Angeles Kings$2.02

56%

FormWWLWL

The model gives Los Angeles Kings the nod at 56% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 5

Seattle Kraken vs Calgary Flames

Pick: Calgary Flames$1.91

50%

FormWWWWL

Calgary Flames are travelling but the model backs them as the form pick — 80% in last 5 and 50% model confidence.

🏒 NHL · Nov 6

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Dallas Stars

Pick: Dallas Stars~$1.92

52%

FormWWWLL

The model gives Dallas Stars the nod at 52% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 6

Detroit Red Wings vs Vegas Golden Knights

Pick: Vegas Golden Knights~$1.77

56%

FormWLLLW

The model gives Vegas Golden Knights the nod at 56% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 6

Montreal Canadiens vs Utah Mammoth

Pick: Montreal Canadiens~$1.78

56%

FormLWWWW

Montreal Canadiens are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 56% model pick.

🏒 NHL · Nov 6

New Jersey Devils vs St. Louis Blues

Pick: New Jersey Devils~$1.44

69%

FormWWWWL

New Jersey Devils are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 69% model pick.

🏒 NHL · Nov 6

New York Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes

Pick: New York Islanders~$1.81

55%

FormWLLWW

The model gives New York Islanders the nod at 55% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

🏒 NHL · Nov 6

New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers

Pick: New York Rangers~$1.51

66%

FormLWLLL

New York Rangers hold a 60-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 66% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Nov 6

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins

Pick: Boston Bruins~$1.36

73%

FormLWWLL

Boston Bruins hold a 72-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 73% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Nov 6

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning~$1.54

65%

FormWWLLW

Tampa Bay Lightning hold a 106-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 65% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Nov 6

Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks

Pick: Edmonton Oilers$1.78

69%

FormWWLLW

Edmonton Oilers hold a 104-point Elo advantage which the model translates to 69% probability of winning this game.

🏒 NHL · Nov 6

Winnipeg Jets vs Vancouver Canucks

Pick: Winnipeg Jets~$1.93

52%

FormLLLLL

The model gives Winnipeg Jets the nod at 52% — a consistent read across ratings and recent form.

💰 Outsiders the model backs — implied odds $3.00+. Higher risk, higher reward.

Loading value bets…

Model features

📊 Elo ratings (K=18, NHL-specific)

📈 Rolling form — 5/10/20 games

🏠 Home advantage (+20 Elo pts)

⏱️ Rest days / back-to-back games

🎯 OT/SO flag for margin analysis

✅ Validated, 10 seasons

Notes

NHL regular season + playoffs, 2015–present. High-scoring games (avg 3.0 goals) mean Elo regression is slower (K=18). OT/SO games tracked separately — both teams get credit for being close. Playoffs tracked but regular season is primary training data.

⚾ MLB

Major League Baseball · 2 picks in the next 7 days

Best Bet

48%

+10% ROI

$500→$828

Value Bet

58%

+31% ROI

$500→$738

Picks

💰 Value

Data

⚾ MLB · Oct 31

Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers$1.63

57%

FormWWWLW

Milwaukee Brewers are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 57% model pick.

⚡ SGM tap to view same game multi

⚾ MLB · Nov 1

Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers$1.63

57%

FormWWWLW

Milwaukee Brewers are winning 80% of their last 5 games — that recent form is the key driver behind the 57% model pick.

⚡ SGM tap to view same game multi

💰 Outsiders the model backs — implied odds $3.00+. Higher risk, higher reward.

Loading value bets…

Model features

📊 Elo ratings (K=16, MLB-specific)

📈 Rolling form — 5/10/20 games

🏠 Home advantage (+15 Elo pts)

⏱️ Rest + pitching rotation proxy

🔁 Head-to-head record per matchup

✅ Validated, 10 seasons

Notes

MLB regular season + playoffs, 2015–present. 162-game season means K=16 keeps Elo stable; teams at 81-81 are genuinely average. Home advantage is smaller than other sports (+15 pts). Division rivalry effects captured in H2H record. Model ignores pitcher matchups (no per-start data) — future enhancement.

🏉 AFL

Australian Football League · This Round picks

Best Bet

50%

+35% ROI

$500→$632

Value Bet

47%

+32% ROI

$500→$604

Picks

💰 Value

Data

AFL 2026 season — final record

EVERY GAME PREDICTED

71.4%

147 correct from 206 games

Best Bets

9/18 (50%)

ROI +39.2% from 18 bets

Value Bets

8/16 (50%)

ROI +44.4% from 16 bets

Best of the season

Sydney @ $4.10 · Brisbane Lions @ Sydney · 2026-09-05

📅

No AFL picks this round — check back soon.

Updates automatically every 2 hours.

💰 Outsiders the model backs — implied odds $3.00+. Higher risk, higher reward.

Loading value bets…

Model features

📊 Elo ratings (K=28, AFL-specific)

📈 Rolling form — 5/10/20 games

🏠 Home advantage (+40 Elo pts, highest in sport)

⚡ Score margin tracking

🔁 Head-to-head record per matchup

✅ Validated, 10 seasons

Notes

AFL regular season + finals, 2015–present. AFL has the largest home advantage of any football code (+40 Elo pts) due to interstate travel and crowd noise. High-scoring games (avg 100+ pts) reduce upset frequency. MCG teams (Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne) get additional crowd benefit. Finals format means September predictions use stronger ELO signals.

🥊 UFC

UFC/MMA — 26 upcoming fight predictions · Live tracking from 2026

Best Bet

81%

+47% ROI

$500→$576

Value Bet

50%

-4% ROI

$500→$498

Picks

💰 Value

Data

🥊 UFC · Oct 30

Ansar Khamzaev vs Juliano Prescendo

Pick: Ansar Khamzaev$1.13

84%

The model rates Ansar Khamzaev at 84% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 30

David Wright vs Lance Wright

Pick: David Wright$1.13

84%

The model rates David Wright at 84% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 30

Sharaf Davlatmurodov vs Wildemar Santos

Pick: Sharaf Davlatmurodov$1.45

64%

The model rates Sharaf Davlatmurodov at 64% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 30

Matt Adams vs Shealor Ladd

Pick: Shealor Ladd$1.45

64%

The model rates Shealor Ladd at 64% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 30

Tom Picciano vs Santos Verdinez

Pick: Santos Verdinez$1.63

57%

The model rates Santos Verdinez at 57% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 31

Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová

Pick: Lucia Szabová$1.17

86%

The model rates Lucia Szabová at 86% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 31

Mickey Gall vs Zachary Reese

Pick: Zachary Reese$1.33

76%

The model rates Zachary Reese at 76% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 31

Joseph Kropschot vs Nick Klein

Pick: Joseph Kropschot$1.30

74%

The model rates Joseph Kropschot at 74% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 31

Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar

Pick: Piera Rodriguez$1.35

71%

The model rates Piera Rodriguez at 71% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 31

Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall

Pick: Francis Marshall$1.44

66%

The model rates Francis Marshall at 66% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 31

Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando

Pick: Rodrigo Sezinando$1.62

63%

The model rates Rodrigo Sezinando at 63% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Oct 31

Jeongyoung Lee vs Julian Erosa

Pick: Jeongyoung Lee$1.55

58%

The model rates Jeongyoung Lee at 58% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Nov 1

Luana Santos vs Yana Santos

Pick: Luana Santos$1.50

73%

The model rates Luana Santos at 73% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Nov 1

Farman Hasanov vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Pick: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani$1.40

72%

The model rates Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani at 72% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Nov 1

Jacobe Smith vs Randy Brown

Pick: Jacobe Smith$1.38

70%

The model rates Jacobe Smith at 70% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Nov 8

Seok Hyun Ko vs Wellington Turman

Pick: Seok Hyun Ko$1.17

81%

The model rates Seok Hyun Ko at 81% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Nov 8

Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milošević

Pick: Nina Milošević$1.21

78%

The model rates Nina Milošević at 78% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Nov 8

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid

Pick: Keiichiro Nakamura$1.29

73%

The model rates Keiichiro Nakamura at 73% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Nov 8

Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando

Pick: Lucas Fernando$1.38

69%

The model rates Lucas Fernando at 69% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Nov 8

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli

Pick: Marcos Degli$1.40

68%

The model rates Marcos Degli at 68% for this matchup.

🥊 UFC · Nov 8

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes

Pick: Karine Silva$1.58

60%

The model rates Karine Silva at 60% for this matchup.

💰 Outsiders the model backs — implied odds $3.00+. Higher risk, higher reward.

Loading value bets…

Model features

📊 Fighter Elo ratings (K=20, stable)

🥊 Finishing rate signal (KO/TKO/sub)

📈 Win streak + rolling form (last 5/10 bouts)

🎯 Minimum 8 fights before full Elo

📉 Calibrated probability (CALIB=0.55)

📈 Live results tracked from 2026

Notes

These are model predictions, not recommended bets. A fight only becomes a Best Bet when the model finds a genuine edge against the market — where it cannot, the fight still appears here and is still graded, but we do not put our name behind it as a bet. UFC model trained on ESPN fight history. Elo adjusted for finishing rate, win streak, and recent form. Calibration factor of 0.55 corrects Elo overconfidence. Minimum 8 ESPN fights required before trusting Elo — below that the model has no independent view and falls back to the market price, which by definition carries no edge. BB filter: conf ≥ 56%, odds 1.60–3.20, edge ≥ 3%.

🏏 Cricket

International Cricket — 0 upcoming match predictions

Picks

💰 Value

Data

📅

Cricket picks appear during international series when bookmaker odds are available.

Updates automatically every 2 hours.

💰 Outsiders the model backs — implied odds $3.00+. Higher risk, higher reward.

Loading value bets…

Model features

📊 Team Elo ratings (overall + format-specific)

🏏 T20I, ODI, and Test coverage

📈 Format-specific ratings — T20 and Test treated separately

🌍 Major nations only (15 teams)

🎯 BB filter: conf ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 10%, odds 1.40–4.00

Notes

International cricket model covering T20 Internationals, One Day Internationals, and Test matches. Separate Elo ratings per format — a team dominant in T20 may not perform the same in Tests. Only bets when model edge vs market is ≥10%. BB filter: conf ≥ 65%, edge ≥ 10%, odds 1.40–4.00.

⭐ Best Bets

Edge-filtered picks · +18.7% avg ROI (622 bets, 2024–2026) · edit strategy →

Picks

⚡ Multis

Loading Best Bets…

⚡ Value Bets

Model edge vs market · +26.2% avg ROI (316 bets, 2024–2026)

Loading Value Bets…

🏇 Racing

Betfair Kash model signals · 2023–2026 verified · pre-race prices only

This weekend

Strategy & Results

🔔 Racing tips arrive by notification

A racing tip is confirmed in the 35 minutes before the jump — not the morning before. That is when the price is live and the field is final, and an early price is often not the one you would actually get.

The moment a race clears the model we send you a push notification and the tip appears here. Between races this page is empty, and that is normal — it does not mean anything is wrong.

Some race days produce several tips; others produce none. A quiet weekend means the prices did not get there, not that we stopped looking.

Checking notification status…

Updated 25 Oct 20:40 · Price shown is the price at the moment we tipped it · Log bets to track in My Strategy

Loading today's tips…

📊 Results

Model performance — 2023 to today. Every result, win or lose.

All Picks

353/672

53% win rate

Best Bets

330/623

+18.7% ROI

$500 → $1,663

flat $10/bet

Value Bets

179/316

+26.2% ROI

$500 → $1,328

flat $10/bet

Racing

816 bets

since 2023

$500 → $2,995

flat $10/bet

2026

2025

2024

Record

115/215

53% accuracy

Best Bets

206

+20% ROI

$500 → $917

flat $10/bet

Value Bets

+27% ROI

$500 → $741

flat $10/bet

October 202627 BB · 15 VB

18/28 (64%)+30% ROI

29 Oct0/1

🏒

Pittsburgh Penguins v Utah Mammoth

→ Pittsburgh Penguins68%$2.16+24%BB

3–4

✗

28 Oct0/1

🏒

San Jose Sharks v Buffalo Sabres

→ San Jose Sharks65%$2.15+20%BB

0–2

✗

27 Oct1/2

🏈

Philadelphia Eagles v Dallas Cowboys

→ Philadelphia Eagles57%$2.00+9%BBVB

21–38

✗

🏒

Calgary Flames v Toronto Maple Leafs

→ Calgary Flames52%$2.19+8%BBVB

5–2

✓

25 Oct3/5

⚾

Milwaukee Brewers v Tampa Bay Rays

→ Milwaukee Brewers56%$2.35+16%BB

5–4

✓

🏈

Carolina Panthers v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

→ Carolina Panthers58%$1.98+10%BBVB

13–43

✗

🏈

Baltimore Ravens v Cincinnati Bengals

→ Baltimore Ravens52%$2.00+4%BBVB

13–35

✗

🏈

Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers

→ Detroit Lions55%$2.14+10%BBVB

20–17

✓

🏒

Calgary Flames v Detroit Red Wings

→ Calgary Flames60%$2.17+16%BB

4–1

✓

24 Oct3/4

🏀

Charlotte Hornets v Miami Heat

→ Charlotte Hornets61%$2.30+19%BBVB

115–110

✓

🏀

Chicago Bulls v Washington Wizards

→ Chicago Bulls60%$2.00+12%BBVB

120–124

✗

🥊

Aaron Pico v Losene Keita

→ Aaron Pico55%$1.78BB

1–0

✓

🥊

Alexander Volkov v Rizvan Kuniev

→ Alexander Volkov55%$1.78BB

1–0

✓

22 Oct0/1

🏀

New Orleans Pelicans v Indiana Pacers

→ New Orleans Pelicans56%$2.40+16%BBVB

120–123

✗

19 Oct1/1

🏈

Green Bay Packers v Dallas Cowboys

→ Green Bay Packers59%$1.95+10%BBVB

23–13

✓

18 Oct0/2

🏈

Jacksonville Jaguars v Houston Texans

→ Jacksonville Jaguars69%$1.95+20%BBVB

31–34

✗

🏈

New York Giants v New Orleans Saints

→ New York Giants60%$2.00+12%BBVB

27–34

✗

17 Oct3/3

🏒

Philadelphia Flyers v Ottawa Senators

→ Philadelphia Flyers52%$2.10+6%BBVB

3–1

✓

🥊

Joaquin Buckley v Mike Malott

→ Mike Malott57%$1.75+2%BB

0–1

✓

🥊

Joel Faglier v Javad Mahjoub

→ Joel Faglier55%$1.80BB

1–0

✓

16 Oct1/1

⚾

Los Angeles Dodgers v Milwaukee Brewers

→ Milwaukee Brewers55%$2.33+13%BB

4–6

✓

12 Oct1/1

⚾

Milwaukee Brewers v Los Angeles Dodgers

→ Milwaukee Brewers58%$2.24BBVB

7–4

✓

11 Oct2/2

🏈

Jacksonville Jaguars v Philadelphia Eagles

→ Jacksonville Jaguars60%$2.05+13%BBVB

19–17

✓

🥊

Andre Fili v Kai Kamaka

→ Andre Fili56%$1.79BB

1–0

✓

10 Oct0/1

🥊

Niko Price v Leon Shahbazyan

→ Leon Shahbazyan57%$1.75BB

1–0

✗

4 Oct1/1

🏈

New York Giants v Arizona Cardinals

→ New York Giants54%$2.21+10%VB

36–24

✓

3 Oct2/2

🥊

Marvin Vettori v Ismail Naurdiev

→ Ismail Naurdiev56%$1.77BB

0–1

✓

🥊

Imanol Rodriguez v Alden Coria

→ Imanol Rodriguez56%$1.78BB

1–0

✓

September 202627 BB · 16 VB

15/30 (50%)+10% ROI

29 Sep1/1

🏈

Chicago Bears v Philadelphia Eagles

→ Chicago Bears54%$1.85+2%BB

27–7

✓

28 Sep1/1

🏈

Denver Broncos v Los Angeles Rams

→ Denver Broncos58%$2.20+14%BBVB

30–26

✓

27 Sep4/5

⚾

Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays

→ Tampa Bay Rays60%$2.32BB

7–3

✗

⚾

San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks

→ San Diego Padres58%$2.21BBVB

9–4

✓

🏈

New York Giants v Tennessee Titans

→ New York Giants64%$1.80+11%BBVB

12–7

✓

🏈

Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati Bengals

→ Pittsburgh Steelers55%$2.14+11%BBVB

30–27

✓

🏈

Cleveland Browns v Carolina Panthers

→ Cleveland Browns53%$2.30+11%VB

21–18

✓

26 Sep1/2

🏉

Fremantle v Brisbane Lions

→ Fremantle55%$2.40+13%BBVB

89–96

✗

🥊

Robert Bryczek v Rodolfo Vieira

→ Rodolfo Vieira59%$1.90+9%BBVB

0–1

✓

23 Sep0/1

⚾

Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros

→ Houston Astros54%$2.25BB

6–5

✗

22 Sep0/1

⚾

Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers

→ Milwaukee Brewers56%$2.20BB

6–4

✗

20 Sep2/4

⚾

Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves

→ Atlanta Braves61%$2.21BB

2–4

✓

⚾

St. Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals

→ Washington Nationals57%$2.28BB

5–3

✗

🏈

Atlanta Falcons v Carolina Panthers

→ Atlanta Falcons56%$1.93+6%BBVB

3–34

✗

🥊

Joshua Van v Alexandre Pantoja

→ Joshua Van56%$1.89+4%BB

1–0

✓

19 Sep0/1

⚾

Chicago White Sox v Detroit Tigers

→ Detroit Tigers58%$2.27BB

3–1

✗

18 Sep0/1

🏉

Sydney v Fremantle

→ Sydney57%$2.65+21%BBVB

71–83

✗

14 Sep1/1

🏈

New York Giants v Dallas Cowboys

→ New York Giants60%$2.26+18%VB

28–20

✓

13 Sep2/3

⚾

St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox

→ St. Louis Cardinals57%$2.20BBVB

3–1

✓

🏈

Houston Texans v Buffalo Bills

→ Houston Texans53%$2.00+6%BBVB

31–36

✗

🏈

Minnesota Vikings v Green Bay Packers

→ Minnesota Vikings61%$1.96+12%BBVB

39–22

✓

12 Sep0/1

⚾

Athletics v Seattle Mariners

→ Athletics55%$2.50BB

1–19

✗

11 Sep0/1

⚾

Washington Nationals v Los Angeles Angels

→ Los Angeles Angels54%$2.32BB

4–3

✗

9 Sep0/1

⚾

Seattle Mariners v Texas Rangers

→ Texas Rangers55%$2.35BB

3–2

✗

8 Sep1/1

⚾

Miami Marlins v New York Mets

→ New York Mets56%$2.20BB

5–7

✓

5 Sep2/4

🏉

Sydney v Brisbane Lions

→ Sydney53%$4.10+25%BBVB

141–88

✓

🏉

Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

→ Western Bulldogs53%$3.30VB

90–68

✗

🥊

Sofia Montenegro v Delphine Benouaich

→ Delphine Benouaich58%$1.78+2%BB

0–1

✓

🥊

Fabia Sintes v Michael Aljarouj

→ Michael Aljarouj56%$1.78BB

1–0

✗

3 Sep0/1

🏉

Fremantle v Hawthorn

→ Fremantle60%$4.20+25%BBVB

40–72

✗

August 202630 BB · 10 VB

15/32 (47%)+4% ROI

30 Aug1/1

⚾

Toronto Blue Jays v Seattle Mariners

→ Toronto Blue Jays65%$2.25BBVB

7–0

✓

29 Aug2/2

⚾

Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals

→ Kansas City Royals55%$2.38BB

3–8

✓

🥊

Sean Woodson v Jack Jenkins

→ Sean Woodson58%$1.76+4%BB

1–0

✓

28 Aug1/2

🏉

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood

→ Western Bulldogs54%$2.02+5%BB

96–93

✓

⚾

New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox

→ Boston Red Sox57%$2.48BB

1–0

✗

23 Aug1/1

🏉

Sydney v North Melbourne

→ Sydney67%$2.22+24%VB

123–70

✓

22 Aug0/1

🏉

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

→ Melbourne60%$2.25+18%BBVB

87–108

✗

19 Aug0/1

⚾

Cincinnati Reds v St. Louis Cardinals

→ St. Louis Cardinals65%$2.31BB

5–4

✗

18 Aug0/1

⚾

Pittsburgh Pirates v Detroit Tigers

→ Detroit Tigers56%$2.30BB

4–1

✗

16 Aug2/2

🥊

Jalin Turner v Kauê Fernandes

→ Jalin Turner57%$1.93+6%BBVB

1–0

✓

🥊

Vicente Luque v Tresean Gore

→ Tresean Gore56%$1.88+3%BB

0–1

✓

15 Aug1/2

⚾

Los Angeles Dodgers v Milwaukee Brewers

→ Los Angeles Dodgers56%$2.20BBVB

1–4

✗

🏉

Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys

→ Parramatta Eels51%$2.60+14%BB

32–30

✓

14 Aug1/2

⚾

Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees

→ Toronto Blue Jays56%$2.37BB

3–1

✓

🏉

Manly Sea Eagles v Dolphins

→ Manly Sea Eagles52%$3.50+24%BB

0–22

✗

11 Aug0/1

⚾

Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox

→ Boston Red Sox63%$2.37BB

5–3

✗

9 Aug1/1

⚾

New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves

→ Atlanta Braves55%$2.32BB

1–2

✓

8 Aug2/3

⚾

Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians

→ Chicago White Sox57%$2.20BBVB

6–3

✓

⚾

Pittsburgh Pirates v New York Mets

→ New York Mets57%$2.25BB

9–0

✗

🏉

Melbourne Storm v Manly Sea Eagles

→ Melbourne Storm56%$2.15+12%BB

42–20

✓

7 Aug0/2

⚾

Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians

→ Chicago White Sox63%$2.31BB

2–8

✗

⚾

New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves

→ Atlanta Braves61%$2.43BB

3–2

✗

5 Aug0/1

⚾

Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers

→ Detroit Tigers67%$2.35BB

4–2

✗

4 Aug1/1

⚾

Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers

→ Detroit Tigers64%$2.25BB

0–8

✓

2 Aug0/3

⚾

Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies

→ Baltimore Orioles56%$2.28BBVB

0–8

✗

⚾

Cleveland Guardians v Arizona Diamondbacks

→ Arizona Diamondbacks60%$2.34BB

5–0

✗

⚾

Seattle Mariners v Minnesota Twins

→ Minnesota Twins59%$2.21BB

7–6

✗

1 Aug2/5

⚾

Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies

→ Baltimore Orioles62%$2.28BBVB

0–5

✗

⚾

Cleveland Guardians v Arizona Diamondbacks

→ Arizona Diamondbacks55%$2.42BB

8–12

✓

⚾

Los Angeles Dodgers v Boston Red Sox

→ Boston Red Sox58%$2.46BB

2–3

✓

🥊

Uros Medic v Daniel Rodriguez

→ Daniel Rodriguez64%$3.80+40%BBVB

1–0

✗

🥊

Aleksandar Rakic v Marcin Tybura

→ Marcin Tybura56%$3.40+29%VB

1–0

✗

July 202623 BB · 6 VB

11/23 (48%)+15% ROI

31 Jul0/1

🏉

Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bulldogs

→ Melbourne Storm55%$2.70+19%BB

22–36

✗

30 Jul0/1

🏉

Collingwood v Geelong

→ Collingwood53%$2.36+11%BBVB

72–97

✗

27 Jul1/2

⚾

Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees

→ Chicago White Sox55%$2.32BB

5–9

✗

⚾

Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners

→ Texas Rangers54%$2.20BBVB

7–3

✓

25 Jul1/2

🏉

Greater Western Sydney v Sydney

→ Sydney53%$2.50BBVB

88–139

✓

⚾

Washington Nationals v Arizona Diamondbacks

→ Arizona Diamondbacks58%$2.31BB

5–3

✗

24 Jul0/1

🏉

Melbourne v Geelong

→ Melbourne54%$7.50BBVB

97–117

✗

23 Jul1/2

🏉

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos

→ North Queensland Cowboys57%$2.30BB

18–10

✓

🏉

Manly Sea Eagles v Cronulla Sharks

→ Manly Sea Eagles51%$2.32BB

12–48

✗

20 Jul1/1

⚾

Toronto Blue Jays v Tampa Bay Rays

→ Tampa Bay Rays55%$2.35BB

1–7

✓

18 Jul1/1

🏉

North Melbourne v Melbourne

→ Melbourne58%$3.25BBVB

76–92

✓

11 Jul1/1

⚾

New York Mets v Boston Red Sox

→ Boston Red Sox71%$2.35BB

0–4

✓

10 Jul1/2

⚾

St. Louis Cardinals v Atlanta Braves

→ St. Louis Cardinals54%$2.42BB

2–1

✓

⚾

Washington Nationals v New York Yankees

→ Washington Nationals60%$2.41BB

3–5

✗

9 Jul2/2

🏉

Fremantle v Sydney

→ Fremantle60%$2.30BBVB

111–73

✓

⚾

Miami Marlins v Seattle Mariners

→ Miami Marlins69%$2.31BB

8–4

✓

8 Jul0/1

⚾

Cincinnati Reds v Philadelphia Phillies

→ Philadelphia Phillies68%$2.20BB

11–5

✗

5 Jul1/1

⚾

Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox

→ Chicago White Sox55%$2.26BB

6–7

✓

4 Jul0/1

⚾

Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates

→ Washington Nationals61%$2.42BB

1–7

✗

3 Jul0/1

⚾

Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox

→ Chicago White Sox55%$2.22BB

4–3

✗

2 Jul0/1

🏉

Geelong v Brisbane Lions

→ Geelong55%$9.20BB

101–123

✗

1 Jul1/2

⚾

Baltimore Orioles v Chicago White Sox

→ Chicago White Sox60%$2.20BB

6–1

✗

⚾

New York Yankees v Detroit Tigers

→ Detroit Tigers54%$2.22BB

2–6

✓

June 202613 BB · 1 VB

6/13 (46%)+6% ROI

30 Jun1/1

⚾

Baltimore Orioles v Chicago White Sox

→ Chicago White Sox56%$2.26BB

3–9

✓

29 Jun1/1

⚾

Cleveland Guardians v Texas Rangers

→ Texas Rangers55%$2.30BB

3–6

✓

27 Jun0/1

⚾

New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies

→ Philadelphia Phillies71%$2.20BB

6–2

✗

25 Jun1/1

⚾

Pittsburgh Pirates v Seattle Mariners

→ Pittsburgh Pirates56%$2.31BB

5–1

✓

24 Jun1/1

⚾

Detroit Tigers v New York Yankees

→ New York Yankees55%$2.27BB

2–4

✓

21 Jun1/1

⚾

Miami Marlins v San Francisco Giants

→ Miami Marlins69%$2.29BBVB

2–1

✓

20 Jun0/1

⚾

Detroit Tigers v Chicago White Sox

→ Chicago White Sox59%$2.23BB

4–1

✗

15 Jun0/1

⚾

Cincinnati Reds v New York Mets

→ New York Mets61%$2.21BB

12–0

✗

14 Jun1/1

⚾

Pittsburgh Pirates v Miami Marlins

→ Miami Marlins55%$2.40BB

2–4

✓

13 Jun0/1

⚾

Pittsburgh Pirates v Miami Marlins

→ Miami Marlins58%$2.20BB

3–2

✗

12 Jun0/1

⚾

Minnesota Twins v St. Louis Cardinals

→ St. Louis Cardinals59%$2.22BB

9–8

✗

11 Jun0/1

⚾

New York Mets v St. Louis Cardinals

→ St. Louis Cardinals57%$2.22BB

5–4

✗

1 Jun0/1

⚾

Minnesota Twins v Chicago White Sox

→ Chicago White Sox61%$2.40BB

9–6

✗

May 202623 BB · 6 VB

15/23 (65%)+54% ROI

26 May0/1

⚾

Texas Rangers v Houston Astros

→ Houston Astros54%$2.20BB

10–7

✗

25 May2/2

⚾

New York Mets v Cincinnati Reds

→ Cincinnati Reds54%$2.37BB

2–7

✓

⚾

San Francisco Giants v Arizona Diamondbacks

→ Arizona Diamondbacks56%$2.22BB

2–6

✓

24 May1/1

🏉

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne

→ Western Bulldogs61%$2.15BB

93–90

✓

23 May1/1

⚾

Toronto Blue Jays v Pittsburgh Pirates

→ Toronto Blue Jays60%$2.37BB

5–2

✓

22 May1/1

⚾

New York Yankees v Tampa Bay Rays

→ Tampa Bay Rays59%$2.36BB

2–4

✓

18 May1/1

⚾

Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Guardians

→ Cleveland Guardians64%$2.32BB

2–8

✓

17 May1/1

⚾

Seattle Mariners v San Diego Padres

→ San Diego Padres56%$2.40BB

3–8

✓

15 May0/1

🏉

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Dolphins

→ South Sydney Rabbitohs55%$2.20BB

10–32

✗

14 May1/1

⚾

Chicago White Sox v Kansas City Royals

→ Chicago White Sox55%$2.22BBVB

6–2

✓

13 May1/2

⚾

Atlanta Braves v Chicago Cubs

→ Atlanta Braves56%$2.22BBVB

4–1

✓

⚾

Toronto Blue Jays v Tampa Bay Rays

→ Tampa Bay Rays68%$2.42BB

5–3

✗

12 May0/1

⚾

New York Mets v Detroit Tigers

→ Detroit Tigers57%$2.31BB

10–2

✗

10 May1/1

⚾

Boston Red Sox v Tampa Bay Rays

→ Tampa Bay Rays60%$2.20BB

1–4

✓

9 May1/1

🏉

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Cronulla Sharks

→ South Sydney Rabbitohs51%$2.40BB

36–12

✓

8 May1/2

⚾

Arizona Diamondbacks v New York Mets

→ Arizona Diamondbacks58%$2.22BBVB

1–3

✗

⚾

Baltimore Orioles v Athletics

→ Athletics57%$2.20BB

3–4

✓

7 May1/1

🏉

Fremantle v Hawthorn

→ Fremantle53%$3.30BBVB

88–73

✓

5 May1/1

⚾

Seattle Mariners v Atlanta Braves

→ Atlanta Braves62%$2.20BB

2–3

✓

4 May1/3

⚾

Colorado Rockies v New York Mets

→ Colorado Rockies54%$2.30BBVB

2–4

✗

⚾

Los Angeles Angels v Chicago White Sox

→ Chicago White Sox68%$2.40BB

0–6

✓

⚾

Seattle Mariners v Atlanta Braves

→ Atlanta Braves66%$2.40BB

5–4

✗

3 May0/1

⚾

Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies

→ Miami Marlins59%$2.25BBVB

2–7

✗

April 202638 BB · 13 VB

22/39 (56%)+28% ROI

30 Apr1/2

⚾

Philadelphia Phillies v San Francisco Giants

→ San Francisco Giants58%$2.28BB

6–5

✗

🏒

Anaheim Ducks v Edmonton Oilers

→ Anaheim Ducks55%$2.15BBVB

5–2

✓

29 Apr2/2

⚾

Atlanta Braves v Detroit Tigers

→ Atlanta Braves66%$2.27BBVB

4–3

✓

⚾

New York Mets v Washington Nationals

→ Washington Nationals56%$2.43BB

2–14

✓

28 Apr1/2

⚾

Chicago White Sox v Los Angeles Angels

→ Chicago White Sox59%$2.21BBVB

5–2

✓

⚾

Philadelphia Phillies v San Francisco Giants

→ San Francisco Giants64%$2.45BB

7–0

✗

26 Apr1/1

🏒

Anaheim Ducks v Edmonton Oilers

→ Anaheim Ducks59%$2.20BB

4–3

✓

25 Apr1/1

⚾

Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates

→ Pittsburgh Pirates57%$2.21BB

3–6

✓

24 Apr2/2

🏒

Anaheim Ducks v Edmonton Oilers

→ Anaheim Ducks54%$2.20BBVB

7–4

✓

🏉

Brisbane Broncos v Canterbury Bulldogs

→ Brisbane Broncos64%$2.48BB

32–12

✓

22 Apr0/3

⚾

Los Angeles Angels v Toronto Blue Jays

→ Toronto Blue Jays56%$2.45BB

7–3

✗

⚾

New York Mets v Minnesota Twins

→ Minnesota Twins64%$2.35BB

3–2

✗

⚾

Tampa Bay Rays v Cincinnati Reds

→ Cincinnati Reds61%$2.20BB

6–1

✗

20 Apr0/1

⚾

Boston Red Sox v Detroit Tigers

→ Detroit Tigers54%$2.21BB

8–6

✗

19 Apr0/1

⚾

Seattle Mariners v Texas Rangers

→ Texas Rangers56%$2.29BB

5–2

✗

18 Apr1/2

⚾

Houston Astros v St. Louis Cardinals

→ St. Louis Cardinals60%$2.31BB

5–7

✓

⚾

Seattle Mariners v Texas Rangers

→ Texas Rangers62%$2.25BB

7–3

✗

17 Apr2/3

⚾

Houston Astros v St. Louis Cardinals

→ St. Louis Cardinals56%$2.22BB

4–9

✓

⚾

Los Angeles Angels v San Diego Padres

→ San Diego Padres62%$2.25BB

8–0

✗

⚾

Seattle Mariners v Texas Rangers

→ Texas Rangers58%$2.20BB

0–5

✓

14 Apr2/2

⚾

Minnesota Twins v Boston Red Sox

→ Minnesota Twins57%$2.20BBVB

6–0

✓

🏒

Minnesota Wild v Anaheim Ducks

→ Minnesota Wild55%$2.13BBVB

3–2

✓

12 Apr2/2

⚾

New York Mets v Athletics

→ Athletics64%$2.50BB

0–1

✓

🏒

New Jersey Devils v Ottawa Senators

→ New Jersey Devils50%$2.16BBVB

4–3

✓

11 Apr2/4

⚾

Detroit Tigers v Miami Marlins

→ Miami Marlins57%$2.24BB

6–1

✗

⚾

New York Mets v Athletics

→ Athletics60%$2.40BB

6–11

✓

⚾

Philadelphia Phillies v Arizona Diamondbacks

→ Arizona Diamondbacks56%$2.21BB

4–3

✗

🏒

Nashville Predators v Minnesota Wild

→ Nashville Predators52%$2.14BBVB

2–1

✓

10 Apr1/2

⚾

Detroit Tigers v Miami Marlins

→ Miami Marlins62%$2.35BB

2–0

✗

⚾

New York Mets v Athletics

→ Athletics55%$2.35BB

0–4

✓

9 Apr1/1

⚾

Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers

→ Minnesota Twins59%$2.22BBVB

3–1

✓

8 Apr1/2

⚾

Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers

→ Minnesota Twins56%$2.36BB

8–6

✓

🏒

Toronto Maple Leafs v Washington Capitals

→ Toronto Maple Leafs51%$2.30+8%VB

0–4

✗

7 Apr0/1

⚾

Boston Red Sox v Milwaukee Brewers

→ Milwaukee Brewers64%$2.35BB

3–2

✗

6 Apr0/1

⚾

Chicago White Sox v Baltimore Orioles

→ Chicago White Sox56%$2.24BBVB

1–2

✗

3 Apr0/1

🏉

Adelaide v Fremantle

→ Adelaide54%$2.00BB

76–78

✗

2 Apr0/1

🏒

Seattle Kraken v Utah Mammoth

→ Seattle Kraken50%$2.17BBVB

2–6

✗

1 Apr2/2

⚾

Arizona Diamondbacks v Detroit Tigers

→ Arizona Diamondbacks58%$2.48BB

1–0

✓

🏀

Milwaukee Bucks v Dallas Mavericks

→ Milwaukee Bucks61%$1.96+13%BBVB

123–99

✓

March 202614 BB · 13 VB

7/16 (44%)+1% ROI

31 Mar0/1

🏒

Columbus Blue Jackets v Carolina Hurricanes

→ Columbus Blue Jackets52%$2.20BBVB

2–5

✗

28 Mar0/1

🏉

Essendon v North Melbourne

→ Essendon55%$2.94BBVB

69–81

✗

26 Mar1/1

🏀

Minnesota Timberwolves v Houston Rockets

→ Minnesota Timberwolves62%$2.02+14%BBVB

110–108

✓

24 Mar1/2

🏒

Philadelphia Flyers v Columbus Blue Jackets

→ Philadelphia Flyers54%$2.20BBVB

2–3

✗

🏒

Winnipeg Jets v Vegas Golden Knights

→ Winnipeg Jets55%$2.15BBVB

4–1

✓

22 Mar0/1

🏒

Pittsburgh Penguins v Carolina Hurricanes

→ Pittsburgh Penguins51%$2.23+7%VB

1–5

✗

21 Mar1/1

🏒

Nashville Predators v Vegas Golden Knights

→ Nashville Predators59%$2.17BB

4–1

✓

15 Mar1/1

🏉

Melbourne v St Kilda

→ Melbourne55%$2.66BBVB

120–107

✓

14 Mar0/1

🏒

Vancouver Canucks v Seattle Kraken

→ Vancouver Canucks57%$2.14BB

2–5

✗

11 Mar1/1

🏀

Los Angeles Lakers v Minnesota Timberwolves

→ Los Angeles Lakers58%$2.10+12%BBVB

120–106

✓

10 Mar0/1

🏒

St. Louis Blues v New York Islanders

→ St. Louis Blues58%$2.10BBVB

3–4

✗

7 Mar1/3

🏉

Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn

→ Greater Western Sydney54%$2.78BBVB

122–95

✓

🏒

San Jose Sharks v New York Islanders

→ San Jose Sharks51%$2.18BBVB

1–2

✗

🏒

Seattle Kraken v Ottawa Senators

→ Seattle Kraken50%$2.23+7%VB

4–7

✗

1 Mar1/2

🏀

Golden State Warriors v Los Angeles Lakers

→ Golden State Warriors56%$2.50+18%BBVB

101–129

✗

🏒

New York Islanders v Florida Panthers

→ New York Islanders58%$2.20BB

5–4

✓

February 20261 BB · 1 VB

1/1 (100%)+136% ROI

22 Feb1/1

🏀

Oklahoma City Thunder v Cleveland Cavaliers

→ Oklahoma City Thunder57%$2.36+16%BBVB

121–113

✓

January 202610 BB · 8 VB

5/10 (50%)+2% ROI

24 Jan0/2

🏒

Ottawa Senators v Carolina Hurricanes

→ Ottawa Senators51%$2.10BBVB

1–4

✗

🏒

St. Louis Blues v Los Angeles Kings

→ St. Louis Blues52%$2.20BBVB

4–5

✗

21 Jan0/1

🏀

Denver Nuggets v Los Angeles Lakers

→ Denver Nuggets58%$2.20+15%BBVB

107–115

✗

17 Jan1/1

🏈

Denver Broncos v Buffalo Bills

→ Denver Broncos54%$1.91BB

33–30

✓

11 Jan1/2

🏀

Boston Celtics v San Antonio Spurs

→ Boston Celtics57%$1.91+7%BB

95–100

✗

🏈

Chicago Bears v Green Bay Packers

→ Chicago Bears53%$2.10BBVB

31–27

✓

10 Jan1/1

🏀

Phoenix Suns v New York Knicks

→ Phoenix Suns59%$2.05+12%BBVB

112–107

✓

6 Jan1/1

🏒

Toronto Maple Leafs v Florida Panthers

→ Toronto Maple Leafs58%$2.13BBVB

4–1

✓

2 Jan0/1

🏒

Anaheim Ducks v Minnesota Wild

→ Anaheim Ducks51%$2.13BBVB

2–5

✗

1 Jan1/1

🏀

Chicago Bulls v New Orleans Pelicans

→ Chicago Bulls61%$2.00+14%BBVB

134–118

✓

🏇

Racing Signal Performance

AU thoroughbreds · Kash RP model · 2023–2026

Signal	ROI (all)	2023	2024	2025	2026
B1 — Metro Sat · GRP3 171 bets · 19% win rate	+52.0%	+86.8% 52 bets	-4.3% 54 bets	+92.0% 38 bets	+41.7% 27 bets
B2 — Metro Sat · $2–$4 287 bets · 35% win rate	+13.1%	+24.3% 97 bets	+3.3% 78 bets	+17.0% 60 bets	+2.4% 52 bets
A+ — Country 2yo · Sat/Sun 355 bets · 14% win rate	+35.7%	+29.8% 124 bets	+48.6% 115 bets	+42.0% 73 bets	+7.1% 43 bets

TAB/Sportsbet equivalent returns · Betfair BSP prices · off-price edge filter applied.
Figures cover settled races to 30 Sep 2026 — Betfair publishes each month about five weeks after it ends, so more recent picks appear in the list below but not yet in these totals.

October 20268 picks

3/8 (38%)+35% ROI

25 Oct0/1

Mr Strong

TOWNSVILLE R4A+$9.00-1.00u

✗

24 Oct1/4

Ocean Tsunami

RANDWICK R2B2$3.95+2.95u

✓

Streamlined

ASCOT R4B2$2.88-1.00u

✗

I Love Ya Money

ASCOT R6B2$4.00-1.00uPLACED

✗

Truly Loyal

ASCOT R10B2$2.80-1.00uPLACED

✗

17 Oct2/3

Im Nipote

ASCOT R1B2$3.45+2.45u

✓

Cavalry Girl

CAULFIELD R6B2$3.40+2.40u

✓

Doubt Time

CAULFIELD R8B1$8.00-1.00u

✗

September 202613 picks

4/13 (31%)+46% ROI

19 Sep2/5

Linebacker

RANDWICK R5B1$7.00-1.00u

✗

Wolf Gap

Caulfield R5B1$4.60-1.00u

✗

Point Barrow

Caulfield R6B1$8.80+7.80u

✓

Cosmic Shower

Morphettville R2B2$4.00+3.00u

✓

Chica Astuta

Morphettville R8B2$3.75-1.00u

✗

12 Sep1/5

Big Sky

FLEMINGTON R4B1$9.00-1.00u

✗

Nearco Frod

Flemington R5B1$6.80-1.00u

✗

Sass Appeal

Flemington R6B2$3.70-1.00u

✗

Navy Rok

Morphettville R5B2$2.48+1.48u

✓

Im Ya Huckleberry

Rosehill R6B1$7.20-1.00u

✗

5 Sep1/3

Closer To Free

SANDOWN R6B2$3.30-1.00u

✗

Olivia Marie

Morphettville R1B2$3.70+2.70u

✓

Thebudgiesmugla

Randwick R4B2$3.35-1.00u

✗

August 202615 picks

3/15 (20%)+177% ROI

29 Aug1/3

Belle Cheval

Caulfield R5B1$23.00-1.00u

✗

Plagiarism

Rosehill R7B1$9.60+8.60u

✓

Wild Atlantic

Rosehill R8B1$7.40-1.00u

✗

22 Aug0/3

Thebudgiesmugla

Randwick R5B1$8.00-1.00u

✗

Disneck

Randwick R8B1$17.50-1.00u

✗

Campione Ditalia

Randwick R8B1$7.40-1.00u

✗

15 Aug1/3

Lockyer

Doomben R4B2$4.00+3.00u

✓

Bold Secret

Morphettville R9B2$2.24-1.00u

✗

Hawker Hall

Rosehill R7B2$2.34-1.00u

✗

8 Aug0/2

Lucky Lucky Boom

Morphettville R2B2$3.70-1.00u

✗

Champagne Hero

Randwick R5B2$3.85-1.00u

✗

1 Aug1/4

Star Patrol

Flemington R7B1$9.40-1.00u

✗

Cote Atlantique

Flemington R7B1$17.50-1.00u

✗

Boomtown Boss

Flemington R7B1$28.00+27.00u

✓

Tarzing

Rosehill R7B2$3.00-1.00u

✗

July 202611 picks

0/11 (0%)-100% ROI

26 Jul0/2

Blue Ivy

Sale R3A+$9.60-1.00u

✗

Andres Girl

Wodonga R3A+$8.80-1.00u

✗

19 Jul0/1

Buzzoffski

Hobart R6A+$2.58-1.00u

✗

18 Jul0/2

John Rambo

Doomben R6B2$3.10-1.00u

✗

Hard Kick

Flemington R2B2$2.28-1.00u

✗

11 Jul0/3

Bossed Up

Doomben R6B2$2.68-1.00u

✗

Pierroplane

Morphettville R5B2$2.98-1.00u

✗

Im Relevant

Newcastle R5A+$11.50-1.00u

✗

4 Jul0/3

Tweeter

Murray Bridge R2A+$5.90-1.00u

✗

Smashing Time

Rosehill R8B2$3.05-1.00u

✗

Zeitgeist

Wyong R3A+$5.70-1.00u

✗

June 202615 picks

4/15 (27%)+133% ROI

27 Jun1/3

Next Step Iowa

Caulfield R2B2$3.40-1.00u

✗

High Authority

Gold Coast R2A+$2.84+1.84u

✓

Hailstones

Newcastle R5A+$10.50-1.00u

✗

21 Jun0/1

Itchintogo

Sunshine Coast R5A+$4.50-1.00u

✗

20 Jun0/3

Harrys Mode

Gold Coast R2A+$12.00-1.00u

✗

Tommy Tie

Gold Coast R2A+$20.00-1.00u

✗

Concerned

Toowoomba R1A+$4.00-1.00u

✗

13 Jun2/2

Angels Fury

Bendigo R3A+$2.18+1.18u

✓

Brevitas

Murray Bridge R2A+$15.00+14.00u

✓

6 Jun1/6

Shintono

Eagle Farm R4B2$4.00-1.00u

✗

King Zephyr

Eagle Farm R7B2$3.40-1.00u

✗

Midnight Dynamite

Randwick R7B2$3.60-1.00u

✗

Nitro

Randwick R10B2$3.85-1.00u

✗

Boridi

Swan Hill R2A+$3.50-1.00u

✗

Hide The Pierata

Toowoomba R1A+$15.00+14.00u

✓

May 202612 picks

2/12 (17%)-47% ROI

30 May0/3

Brave Monarch

Eagle Farm R6B1$5.90-1.00u

✗

Elio

Illawarra Grange R2A+$14.50-1.00u

✗

Biancelli

Morphettville R3B2$3.75-1.00u

✗

16 May1/2

Sparkling Luck

Morphettville R4B2$3.60+2.60u

✓

Niftys Treasure

Toowoomba R1A+$3.95-1.00u

✗

9 May0/2

Portarlington

Morphettville R3B1$5.50-1.00u

✗

Kokako

Morphettville R7B1$25.00-1.00u

✗

2 May1/5

Rock N The Jam

Ascot R4B2$2.80+1.80u

✓

Too Darn Stormy

Ascot R9B2$2.92-1.00u

✗

All Adore

Eagle Farm R3B2$2.66-1.00u

✗

Sea What I See

Morphettville R6B2$2.72-1.00u

✗

Magritte

Toowoomba R1A+$3.95-1.00u

✗

April 202616 picks

4/16 (25%)-22% ROI

25 Apr0/4

Moulin Miss

Eagle Farm R3B2$2.74-1.00u

✗

Esperanza

Eagle Farm R5B2$3.90-1.00u

✗

Aragog

Morphettville R2B1$22.00-1.00u

✗

Wonderful Sky

Morphettville R2B1$7.60-1.00u

✗

19 Apr0/2

Brief Authority

Grafton R1A+$21.00-1.00u

✗

Naystar

Grafton R1A+$19.50-1.00u

✗

18 Apr1/3

Horcrux

Ascot R10B2$3.90-1.00u

✗

Plaintiff

Randwick R4B1+B2$2.36-1.00u

✗

Captain Furai

Randwick R10B2$3.60+2.60u

✓

12 Apr1/2

Crank

Terang R1A+$4.00+3.00u

✓

Howcani Resistyou

Terang R1A+$5.70-1.00u

✗

11 Apr2/4

Kay Tee Why

Ascot R3B2$3.30-1.00u

✗

Too Darn Stormy

Ascot R6B2$3.50-1.00u

✗

Oliveanotherday

Caulfield R9B2$2.70+1.70u

✓

Phere The Warrego

Toowoomba R1A+$2.14+1.14u

✓

4 Apr0/1

Classic Gem

Randwick R2B1$6.20-1.00u

✗

March 202612 picks

2/12 (17%)-22% ROI

21 Mar2/5

Malletier

Ascot R10B2$2.70+1.70u

✓

Strictly Business

Caulfield R4B1$10.50-1.00u

✗

Sassy For Sure

Morphettville R3B2$3.35-1.00u

✗

Mr Monaco

Rosehill R2B1$6.60+5.60u

✓

Inkaruna

Rosehill R10B1+B2$2.66-1.00u

✗

14 Mar0/1

Morosini

Gosford R1A+$12.00-1.00u

✗

8 Mar0/1

My Queen

Muswellbrook R2A+$12.00-1.00u

✗

7 Mar0/5

Divine Mirage

Bunbury R1A+$8.60-1.00u

✗

Mr Oreilly

Eagle Farm R2B2$4.00-1.00u

✗

Mr Oreilly

Eagle Farm R2B2$4.00-1.00u

✗

Sanctuary

Flemington R3B1$11.00-1.00u

✗

Damask Rose

Flemington R8B1$7.40-1.00u

✗

February 202619 picks

5/19 (26%)-4% ROI

28 Feb1/6

Night Market

Eagle Farm R4B2$3.10-1.00u

✗

Brindavan

Eagle Farm R5B2$3.55+2.55u

✓

Sniper Boom

Gold Coast R1A+$8.00-1.00u

✗

Anders Dream

Gold Coast R1A+$23.00-1.00u

✗

Longer Route

Morphettville R4B2$3.25-1.00u

✗

Barracks

Newcastle R1A+$3.35-1.00u

✗

22 Feb1/1

Medicinal

Ballarat R1A+$4.30+3.30u

✓

21 Feb1/3

Pallaton

Caulfield R2B1+B2$4.00+3.00u

✓

Stealth Of Night

Caulfield R10B2$3.75-1.00u

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Travolta

Rosehill R7B1$5.00-1.00u

✗

14 Feb1/6

The Cellist

Ballarat R1A+$36.00-1.00u

✗

Expensive Taste

Ballarat R1A+$8.60-1.00u

✗

Tough Talk

Morphettville R5B2$3.70+2.70u

✓

Doubella

Newcastle R1A+$4.70-1.00u

✗

Machrihanish

Newcastle R1A+$4.60-1.00u

✗

Daryte

Pinjarra R7A+$13.00-1.00u

✗

7 Feb1/3

Mic Drop

Morphettville R8B2$2.68+1.68u

✓

Autumn Break

Randwick R2B2$2.80-1.00u

✗

Napoleonic

Randwick R8B1$7.80-1.00u

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January 202621 picks

5/21 (24%)+51% ROI

31 Jan0/5

Invincible Son

Caulfield R6B1$12.50-1.00u

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Damask Rose

Caulfield R7B1$8.20-1.00u

✗

Incognito

Rosehill R3B1+B2$2.06-1.00u

✗

Miss Scandal

Rosehill R4B1$4.20-1.00u

✗

Enriched

Rosehill R8B1$7.60-1.00u

✗

24 Jan2/4

Taken

Caulfield R1B2$2.92+1.92u

✓

Space Rider

Caulfield R8B1$18.00+17.00u

✓

Trapalanda

Randwick R5B2$3.15-1.00u

✗

On The Clock

Sunshine Coast R1A+$13.00-1.00u

✗

17 Jan2/3

Daryte

Ascot R1B2$3.55+2.55u

✓

Big Sky

Flemington R1B2$3.30+2.30u

✓

Lady Moscato

Gold Coast R3A+$7.00-1.00u

✗

10 Jan0/3

Jenni Gone Bonkers

Flemington R1B2$2.34-1.00u

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Maharba

Flemington R8B1$9.60-1.00u

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Proton

Wyong R1A+$5.30-1.00u

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3 Jan1/6

Tambeloa

Eagle Farm R2B2$3.95-1.00u

✗

Free Ride

Pinjarra R2A+$11.00-1.00u

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Ace Queen Suited

Pinjarra R2A+$12.00-1.00u

✗

Knightsbridge

Randwick R1B2$3.95+2.95u

✓

Cool In Command

Te Aroha R2A+$2.92-1.00u

✗

Face The Wild

Toowoomba R2A+$2.00-1.00u

✗

Good morning

My Strategy

Bets auto-settle · bankroll compounds · results track in real time

Starting Bankroll

$1,000

Staking Strategy

P&L

—

total profit / loss

Return on Bankroll

—

growth on deposit

Yield

—

return per $ wagered

Bets

—

Win Rate

—

Last 5

—

By Sport

Log bets to see breakdown

Bankroll Over Time

How Vantage works

Real data. Honest testing. No black boxes.

📊

Elo rating system

Every team has a live Elo rating updated after each game. Bigger wins move the needle more. Resets slightly each new season to account for roster changes.

📈

Rolling form windows

Last 5, 10, and 20 game windows for win rate, points scored, and points allowed. Recent form is weighted more heavily than older results.

🏠

Home court advantage

Home teams win ~59% of NBA games, ~45% in football. Vantage models each team's specific home/away record, not just the league average.

📅

Schedule & fatigue

Rest days between games, back-to-back flags, 3-games-in-4-nights, road trip depth. Tired teams underperform — we measure it.

🔁

Head-to-head record

Each team's win rate in the last 10 meetings against this specific opponent. Some matchups have consistent patterns that raw ratings miss.

✅

Out-of-sample testing

Trained on historical seasons only. Never shown future data during training. 64% accuracy across 6 real NBA seasons.

NBA model — 6 season record

Season

Games

Accuracy

High-conf (70%+)

2018–19

1,199

64.8%

75.2%

2019–20

1,033

62.3%

72.3%

2020–21

958

63.1%

74.8%

2021–22

1,227

63.7%

76.1%

2022–23

1,179

64.2%

77.4%

2023–24

1,218

65.7%

81.0%

Common questions

Billing, cancellation, and what to expect day to day.

Why didn't I get a pick today?

Because the model didn't find one that cleared its filter. A pick is published only when the edge against the market price is large enough to have been profitable when the filter was measured against past seasons — so a quiet day is the filter working, not the service failing. Volume varies a lot week to week: some days produce several picks, some produce none. If you would rather see every prediction, the individual sport pages are free and always show the model's full view, including the ones that didn't qualify.

How do I cancel, and what happens to my access?

Cancel any time from your account — it takes effect at the end of the period you have already paid for, so you keep full access until then. Nothing is cut short. Your logged bets and history are kept, so if you come back later everything is still there.

Do you offer refunds?

Not for partial months, because access runs to the end of the period you paid for rather than stopping when you cancel. This does not affect your rights under the Australian Consumer Law, including where a service is not supplied as described. Full detail is in Terms section 6.

Are the published returns what I would have made?

They are what a flat stake on every published pick would have returned at the price shown when it was published — not the price at kickoff, which moves. Two things to keep in mind. The racing figure is one number covering 1,095 model selections priced at Betfair SP together with the live published picks, which are priced at what a subscriber was shown — the live record on its own begins 5 Sep 2026 and is far smaller. And month-to-month variance on a sample this size is wide. A losing month is normal and does not by itself mean anything has changed.

When do notifications arrive?

One hour before a Best Bet or Value Bet starts, and again if it settles as a win. Alerts fire at the same moment everywhere, so "starts in 1 hour" is accurate wherever you are — which does mean an overseas fixture can arrive overnight in Australia. Your phone's Do Not Disturb governs that.

Is this betting advice?

No. Vantage is a data and analytics service — we do not accept bets, hold funds, or give financial advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. What you do with the analysis is your decision. If betting has stopped being enjoyable, Gambling Help Online is free and confidential on 1800 858 858.

Last updated: September 2026

1. About Vantage

Vantage Sports Data ("Vantage", "we", "us") is a data analytics and information service. We publish statistical model outputs and historical performance data for sports and horse racing. We do not provide financial advice, gambling tips, or any form of licensed betting service.

2. Not financial or gambling advice

All content published by Vantage — including confidence scores, pick recommendations, ROI figures, and staking calculations — is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, or gambling advice. You should exercise your own independent judgement before placing any bet. You acknowledge that gambling involves risk and that past performance does not guarantee future results.

3. Accuracy of information

We take reasonable care to ensure the accuracy of the data and predictions published on this site. However, we make no warranty — express or implied — regarding accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. Model outputs are based on historical data and statistical methods; they may be incorrect. Odds, fixtures, and results data are sourced from third-party providers and may occasionally be delayed or erroneous.

4. Limitation of liability

To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, Vantage and its operators shall not be liable for any loss or damage — including but not limited to gambling losses, lost profits, or indirect damages — arising from your use of this site or reliance on any information published here.

5. Responsible gambling

We are committed to promoting responsible gambling. If gambling is causing you or someone you know harm, please seek help. Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858 · www.gamblinghelponline.org.au. You must be 18 years or older to use this service.

6. Subscriptions, billing and cancellation

What is free: Individual sport pages, all published results and past performance are free and do not require a subscription.
What is paid: Best Bets, Value Bets, Racing and the My Strategy dashboard require an active subscription.
Recurring billing: Subscriptions are billed monthly in advance and renew automatically until cancelled. Payments are processed by Stripe.
First month free: Where a free first month is offered, billing begins at the end of that month unless you cancel before it ends. The offer is limited to one per customer.
Cancelling: You may cancel at any time from your account. Cancellation stops the next renewal — it does not shorten the period you have already paid for, and you keep access until the end of that period.
Refunds: We do not offer refunds for partial months, because access continues to the end of the paid period. Nothing here limits any rights you have under the Australian Consumer Law, including where a service is not supplied as described.
When access ends: Paid features lock immediately at the end of your paid period. Your account, logged bets and history are retained so everything is intact if you resubscribe.
Price changes: We will give you at least 30 days' notice by email before any price change takes effect, and you may cancel before it applies.

7. Acceptable use

You agree not to use this site for any unlawful purpose, to attempt to scrape or reproduce our data at scale without permission, or to misrepresent Vantage content as guaranteed tips or financial advice to third parties.

8. Changes to these terms

We may update these Terms from time to time. Continued use of the site after changes are published constitutes acceptance of the updated Terms.

9. Governing law

These Terms are governed by the laws of the State of Victoria, Australia. Any disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of Victoria.

Last updated: September 2026

1. What we collect

You can browse sport pages, results and past performance without an account. If you create an account or subscribe, we collect and store the following:

Account details: Your email address, and an encrypted password if you sign up with one. These are stored by Supabase, our authentication and database provider. We never see or store your password in readable form.
Your betting records: Bets you log in My Strategy — the selection, odds, stake, date and result — are stored against your email so they are available on any device you sign in from. This is your data; we use it only to show you your own dashboard.
Your preferences: Bankroll and staking strategy, stored against your account for the same reason.
Subscription details: If you subscribe, Stripe processes the payment and holds your card details. We never receive or store your card number. We keep a Stripe customer reference, your subscription status and your plan tier so we know what to give you access to.
Push notifications: If you opt in, a pseudonymous device token is registered with OneSignal. Used solely to send pick alerts; revoke any time in your browser or device settings.
Analytics: Anonymous page views, session duration and device type via Netlify Analytics. Not linked to your account.
Local storage: Your browser also keeps a copy of your preferences and logged bets so the site works before you sign in. Signing in syncs these to your account.

2. How we use data

We use your account data solely to operate the service: to sign you in, to show you your own betting records and performance, and to determine which subscription features you can access. We use aggregated, anonymous analytics to understand which content is useful.

We do not sell, rent, or share your personal information with third parties for marketing purposes, and we do not use your betting records for any purpose other than displaying them back to you.

3. Third-party services

Vantage relies on the following providers, each operating under its own privacy policy:

Netlify — hosting and analytics
Supabase — authentication and database (your email, bets and preferences)
Stripe — subscription payments (your card details, which we never see)
OneSignal — push notifications

Some of these providers store data outside Australia. By using the service you consent to that transfer.

4. Cookies

This site does not use advertising cookies or tracking pixels, and no advertising network has access to your browsing behaviour here. Functional cookies and browser storage are used to keep you signed in and to remember your preferences.

5. Your rights

You can ask us to access, correct or delete the personal information we hold about you. Specifically:

Access or correction: email us and we will provide or amend the data held against your account.
Deletion: email us and we will delete your account, your logged bets and your preferences. Cancel your subscription first, or ask us to cancel it as part of the request. Some records may be retained where we are required to keep them, such as payment records held by Stripe for tax and accounting purposes.
Push notifications: revoke permission in your browser or device settings at any time.

We aim to respond to any request within 30 days.

6. Contact

For any privacy-related questions, contact us at hello@vantagesports.com.au.

7. Changes to this policy

We may update this Privacy Policy from time to time. The "last updated" date at the top of this page reflects the most recent revision.

MEMBERSHIP

Data-backed. Fully transparent.

All picks tracked publicly, win or lose. Your first month is free — applied automatically.

Billed monthly · first month free · cancel anytime

Sports

AUD $29/mo

+18.7% BB · +26.2% VB ROI since 2024

✓ Best Bets (all sports)

✓ Value Bets (all sports)

✓ 8 sports covered

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Racing

AUD $25/mo

+30.7% ROI since 2023

✓ Selections when the model finds value

✓ Signal-filtered picks (B1 · B2 · A+)

✓ AU thoroughbreds — mostly Sat/Sun

✓ Push alerts the moment a pick confirms

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Full Access

AUD $44/mo

Save ~$10/mo vs separate

✓ Everything in Sports

✓ Everything in Racing

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First month free, applied automatically · Cancel anytime · Billed monthly

Billing, cancellation and refunds

Billed monthly in advance, renewing automatically until you cancel. Payments are processed by Stripe.
Cancel any time from your account. Cancelling stops the next renewal — it does not shorten the period you have already paid for, and you keep access until it ends.
No refunds for partial months, because access continues to the end of the paid period. This does not limit your rights under the Australian Consumer Law, including where a service is not supplied as described.
At least 30 days' notice by email before any price change, and you can cancel before it applies.

Full detail in the Terms of Service, section 6. Vantage is a data and analytics service — we do not accept bets, and no result is guaranteed.

Signal	ROI (all)	2023	2024	2025	2026
B1 — Metro Sat · GRP3 171 bets · 19% win rate	+52.0%	+86.8% 52 bets	-4.3% 54 bets	+92.0% 38 bets	+41.7% 27 bets
B2 — Metro Sat · $2–$4 287 bets · 35% win rate	+13.1%	+24.3% 97 bets	+3.3% 78 bets	+17.0% 60 bets	+2.4% 52 bets
A+ — Country 2yo · Sat/Sun 355 bets · 14% win rate	+35.7%	+29.8% 124 bets	+48.6% 115 bets	+42.0% 73 bets	+7.1% 43 bets

Data-driven picks backedby real, verified ROI.

High-confidence picks

How it works

1. About Vantage

2. Not financial or gambling advice

3. Accuracy of information

4. Limitation of liability

5. Responsible gambling

6. Subscriptions, billing and cancellation

7. Acceptable use

8. Changes to these terms

9. Governing law

1. What we collect

2. How we use data

3. Third-party services

4. Cookies

5. Your rights

6. Contact

7. Changes to this policy

Data-backed. Fully transparent.

Data-driven picks backed
by real, verified ROI.